Craps Hedging Strategy
In this craps betting strategy I show you how to win at craps with little money. You can win with just a $100 bankroll. This is the hedge 6/8 strategy. You are watching this video without being inside my playlist. I have a bunch of casino related video. Jareds Hedge Betting System. By Jerry 'Stickman'. I received this letter the other day. Hello Jerry, I do not know how to program and I am looking for someone to write a betting script for me for the Smart Craps simulator with a strategy that I am working on.
Beginning gamblers often shy away from the craps table because the game looks complicated. It’s actually easy to play craps because the math keeps everyone honest. A rule of thumb to live by in any casino game is “the more they pay the less likely you are to win the bet”. Hence, there is no shame and a lot of wisdom in playing a conservative craps strategy. Here is a look at 12 secrets every craps player should learn to improve their game.
1. Why are Casino Dice Special?
Casinos use transparent dice because they hide no flaws. Opaque dice can be manufactured to varying standards and can hide balancing flaws. Unbalanced dice do not roll randomly.
And casinos replace their dice often. Casino dice have machine-tooled straight edges. These edges eventually wear down, accumulating imperfections. Imperfections add bias to rolls.
Casino dice are larger and straighter than board gaming dice because players must throw the dice so far on a craps table. The felt top and lining help the dice bounce more randomly than a smooth table top does.
So while you may be practicing your die throws at home, you’re not going to get the same action as at a casino, especially if you never replace your practice dice.
2. How the 5-Count System Works
Since 1994 craps players have debated whether the Captain’s 5-Count system is legit. This system tells you when to bet on a shooter other than yourself. Here are the 5 counts:
- Any point on the Come Out roll roll.
- Any good roll after the 1st Count roll.
- Any good roll after the 2nd Count roll.
- Any good roll after the 3rd Count roll.
- The first point rolled after the 4th Count roll.
You begin placing low bets on the shooter after he hits his 5th Count roll. If he never gets there then you never bet on that shooter. Never bet big on another shooter.
The 5-Count method reduces the number and size of bets you place on other shooters, thus reducing your overall risk. The downside of using the 5-Count method is that you watch more than play, but betting on a drunk guy to throw dice the way you want is a pretty risky bet.
3. You Can Stop the Game for a Dispute
Sometimes the dice roll funny, or maybe you’re not sure you were paid correctly. Before the dice are thrown again, if you are certain something is wrong, you can stop the game. You can ask the dealers to recount or reconsider or, if you disagree with their decisions, ask to speak to the pit boss. This is an option of last resort when you are sure you are right. Casinos want to keep the table in play and will work to resolve disputes quickly but they’ll also ask troublesome or argumentative players to leave.
Stopping play is a mix of courtesy, privilege, and right. It’s not a gambling strategy, at least not a winning one.
4. The More Bets You Place the Worse Your Chances of Winning
This is true in any table game, but some craps players love to place multiple bets. You’re taking on more risk, not spreading the risk, when you place several bets at the same time.
5. Know the Die Roll Probabilities
In a completely random game the chances of any given number on either die being rolled is 1 in 6. The chance of rolling any combination of numbers on the dice is 1 in 36. This “1 in 36” number can mislead you. There are only 11 possible values (2 through 12) that you can roll.
“7” is the most frequent die roll combination. There are 6 ways to roll a “7”. Some writers say there are three ways to roll a “7”: 1 and 6, 2 and 5, or 3 and 4. However, the math has to account for each die separately; hence, the probability of rolling a “7” in craps is 1 in 6.
In declining order of probability, the possible combinations in craps are:
- 7 (1 in 6)
- 6 or 8 (5 in 36)
- 5 or 9 (4 in 36)
- 4 or 10 (3 in 36)
- 3 or 11 (2 in 36)
- 2 or 12 (1 in 36)
6. The “Pass” Bet is More Likely to Pay on Come Out than the “Don’t Pass” Bet
Both Pass and Don’t Pass pay even money so you can bet either way. Still, when you look at the probability table above, the shooter has 8 chances in 36 of rolling 7 or 11 on the Come Out roll and 3 chances in 36 of rolling a 2 or 3. If you are just hoping to win on the Come Out roll, go with the “Pass” bet.
7. The 6 and 8 Points Pay the Most over Time
The 6:5 odds for the 6 and 8 points are the worst and the 2:1 odds for the 4 and 10 points are the best. But the probabilities are best for the 6 and 8 and worst for the 4 and 10.
The premium on a 6:5 payoff for 6 or 8 is 20% over your bet. The premium on a 3:2 payoff for a 5 or 9 is 50% of your bet. The premium on a 2:1 payoff for a 4 or 10 is 100% of your bet. In a perfect distribution of 36 die rolls your expected total premiums are:
- 5 * 20% = 100% (betting on 6 or 8)
- 4 * 50% = 200% (betting on 5 or 9)
- 3 * 100% = 300% (betting on 4 or 10)
Although the 300% ROI for 4/10 looks great there is a slight edge for 6/8 bettors. Because you are losing all those other bets, you lose the least amount of money with the 6/8 points. Note also that multiplying (bets + premiums) by expected wins across the board results in a 600% return. The distribution with the fewest losses is the way to bet.
8. The More Complicated Your Strategy the More Risk You Take
The more you have to think about where your money goes, the odds and probabilities, and when you can bet, the more likely you will make a mistake. High risk strategies pay off less often than low risk strategies. Most experts agree that the long, slow game works best in craps, especially for non-expert players. Keep your money on the Pass Line until you’re way ahead.
9. Avoid Hedge Bets
Ignore dealer calls for “any craps” bets. Your expected return declines your risk grows when you hedge bets. “Any craps” betting is a bet on a bet. This just adds conditions to your Pass Line bet. The strategic way to gamble is to minimize risk while maximizing potential return on bet. The house will drain your bankroll any way it can and hedge bets are a favored gimmick.
10. Use the Tower of Hanoi Method to Manage Your Betting
The Tower of Hanoi is a math puzzle about moving stacks of disks among three pegs. You can never place a disk on a smaller disk. The Tower of Hanoi rule assumes you are willing to lose everything in your bankroll. To conserve your money and manage risk, begin by making minimum bets. Increase your bets only when your bankroll is above its starting value.
Many craps players only risk 5% of their stakes on any bet. The 5% method works well enough but you’ll eventually run into the table minimum. The Tower of Hanoi method starts with the minimum bet as a floor, not 5%. As long as your bankroll is growing you can increase your bets toward the table maximum.
11. Never Return to Your Starting Stake
Let’s say your betting strategies have paid off enough that you have doubled your money. Once you reach that goal you should set a new floor. Walk away from the table if your stake drops to 150% of your original bankroll. This way you walk away a winner.
But there is another reason to do this. If you play any game too long you become tired, especially if you have been drinking. Your decision-making suffers when you are tired. Take “winner’s breaks” as often as possible so that you can give your brain a chance to rest.
12. The House Edge is not Determined by the Odds
Some gamblers assume the house loses more money on the basis of the odds on a given bet. It doesn’t work that way. The game is designed to pay about the same over time on any basic bet but to dilute your return with extra bets. In other words, the house edge is determined by the math behind the game. The odds are just what they are willing to pay you to maintain that edge over time.
Craps Hedging Strategy Games
Conclusion
Craps is a fine game for any gambler who enjoys taking risks, but you do need to understand the game. Fortunately, craps is designed for players of all experience levels. You don’t have to play all the different types of bets. And isn’t it interesting that the best strategies favor beginner-level bets anyway?
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Craps: The Parity Hedge System
Craps Hedging Strategy For Dummies
This is the forgotten system that took the gambling world by storm for a few brief weeks in the early 1970s. After we first mentioned the Parity Hedge System in 1998, we have received literally thousands of e-mails requesting more information about the system, who developed it, why it never became public information, and what happened to it.
The Parity Hedge System derives in part from the Doey-Don't System immortalized in Frank Scoblete's classic book: Beat the Craps Out of the Casinos and Play Craps and Win, p. 39 (Bonus Books, 1991). You have to understand what makes that strategy successful before you can delve into the intricacies of the Parity Hedge System.
The Unofficial History of the Parity Hedge System
The originators of the Parity Hedge System were too smart to make themselves known. It is believed that they were nuclear physicists and theoretical mathematicians who were working at the Nevada Test Range, located just north of Las Vegas. During the daytime, they put their skills to the test by creating new and unusual types of hydrogen bombs and measuring their yields. In the evening, they made their way into Las Vegas where they put their statistical know-how to the test on the Blackjack and Craps tables. This was a group of very sharp young minds who had studied under such geniuses as Von Neumann and Teller, and who knew how to 'think outside the box'.
Whether they picked up the Doey-Don't from other gamblers, or they figured the system out themselves is not known. At any rate, they quickly realized the nearly risk-free arbitrage nature of the 'DD', and in their slack time at the test range began to theorize about how to improve on the Doey-Don't. Eventually, they were to develop their strategy into a situational algorithm that is much like a basic computer program. Depending on the situation, betting a certain way will either slightly improve the odds, or will negate odds that have become heavily in the house's favor.
Realizing that an overly-complex system was unworkable with a fast-paced game such as craps, these kid geniuses simplified the system into the '11 keys' that characterizes the system. They also realized that if the casinos ever figured out the Parity Hedge System, the casinos could make slight rule changes to negate the system's advantages (To jump ahead for a moment, they were wrong - even years after studying the few film tapes of people using the Parity Hedge System, the casino's mathematicians were unable to crack the system, and so no changes were ever made. But the casinos were to handle the matter differently, as we will soon relate).
Of course, the kid geniuses tried to keep the system to themselves. They wouldn't play when other experienced gamblers were around, but played only in the early morning hours while the least knowledgeable security crews were working and most of the casino personnel were focused on clearing the slot machines' take from the previous night. They made small bets, and were for awhile content to supplement their government salaries with repeated small but consistent payoffs.
But greed begets greed. As détente and the nuclear arms accords began to spell an end to many of the nuclear testing programs, some of those knowledgeable about the system began to think of ways to make a really big 'hit' on the casino.
The Parity Hedge System gives gamblers a slight edge over the casino. For small bets, this means small gains. Bigger gains requires bigger bets, and bigger bets attract more attention. And the kid geniuses did not want their system to go away. But they didn't want to retire on their government pensions, either.
Eventually, they settled on a Japanese businessman who they knew through their defense contacts. The Japanese businessman had cash and the mathematical skills necessary to run the Parity Hedge System on a big-time basis. More importantly, the Japanese businessman was already known around Las Vegas as a 'whale' who regularly dropped tens of thousands (remember, this was the mid-1970s) on a single weekend - and even better the casinos knew him as a 'hard luck' gambler. If the Japanese businessman suddenly started winning, the casinos would figure that his luck had simply changed and it would not attract attention.
So it was that on one of his many trips to Las Vegas to oversee a construction contract that the kid geniuses took the Japanese businessman aside, and over the course of a weekend had instructed him in the 'basic' Parity Hedge System.
Early on the following Monday morning, during the casino's most quiet time, the Japanese businessman made his way to the crap table, took over an end, flopped down $10,000 in cash, and started working the system. At first, the crew working the table and the boxmen thought we was nuts, playing 'offsetting' bets that seemingly couldn't win. Yet, of the course of an hour and a half, the Japanese businessman had very quietly doubled his money.
It had been decided beforehand that the Japanese businessman would spread his money around several casinos, and so he did for the remainder of the week always playing around the breakfast hour. He lost on one day only, and then by little more than $200 after an hour and a half of play. The Japanese businessman concluded his first visit up more than $15,000 - of which he split $7,500 with the kid geniuses, as well as a promise to return. Everything had gone so smoothly that the casinos hardly took notice of the Japanese businessman's suddenly improved play.
The kid geniuses continued to perfect the Parity Hedge System, sublime in the context of doing this over coffee while measuring underground atomic tests. But they awaited the Japanese businessman's return, and their big payday.
The Japanese businessman played the role well, waiting until the several casino's inevitable calls inviting him to return. He at first refused, and then acquiesced on the condition that the casinos would allow him to play craps at a very high dollar amount - placing up to $10,000 per roll. The casinos were probably overjoyed when they heard this, and assured him that if he could bankroll it, they would take his money. So, the Japanese businessman took the time to schedule another 'construction visit' to the Las Vegas area, this time wiring to each of these casinos a large sum (believed to be around $600,000 each). Thus it was that the Japanese businessman landed in Las Vegas on a Thursday, stayed holed up in his hotel room through the weekend (except for a brief visit to the Atomic Test Range), and then showed up at precisely 6:00 a.m. on Monday to start gambling.
And gamble he did. Helped by an enormous streak of 'good numbers', the Japanese businessman was up $1 million by breakfast. He then spent the day making a circuit of the other casinos, only losing once and cleaning the rest out for amounts up to $2 million. At the end of the day, by making progressively bigger bets with the casino's money that he had won, the Japanese businessman was ahead a cool $11 million.
Nothing travels fasted in Las Vegas than the news of a big winner. While each casino had 'spotters' on the Japanese businessman - more looking for ways to lure him back to their casino when his run of 'luck' finally broke - the casino bosses were meeting with their staffs to try to figure out what had happened. Keep in mind that at this juncture in Las Vegas' history, the casinos were being run mostly be ex-mobsters (and some not-so-ex-) and they simply couldn't grasp the Parity Hedge System. For his part, the Japanese businessman greeted his casino-appointed hosts cordially, and retired back to his hotel room.
Truth is, he should have taken the first plane out of town. Instead, he again appears promptly at 6:00 a.m. the next morning, per the kid geniuses' plan, and starts gambling at the highest limit (which, of course, the casinos let him do to try to get their money back). Again, the combination of his lucky streak, the Parity Hedge System, and that he was now using the large sums of casino money he had won the day before, resulted in gains of just under $10 million at each of a half-dozen casinos in town.
By this time, the casino bosses are really starting to panic. In the mid-1970s, a $10 million loss was unthinkable. Because there was still a great deal of 'skimming' going on, the casinos basically had no cash reserves. Fortunately, the Japanese businessman had deposited his winnings with the casino at the end of each day as credit for the next day.
The casino bosses still didn't understand what was happening. The first thought in their paranoid minds was that the Japanese businessman was cheating. By this time, the Japanese businessman was being watched by probably 20 or 30 people at each casino, so that was unlikely. The casino bosses simply couldn't get it through their minds that there was some system that gave the Japanese businessman a slight advantage over the house.
By the third morning, the casino bosses were in a panic. They knew that the Japanese businessman was scheduled to leave, and they knew the odds were low of winning his money back. And sure enough, at 6:00 a.m., sharp, he steps into the first casino of the day, and starts playing the system at the highest level allowed him by the house. And he is still hot.
By a little after 11:00, he's been through five casinos, and is up additional tens of millions. Thus, the Japanese businessman (in a private limo - should have been his first clue that something was amiss) started for the airport, where he had instructed each of the casinos to meet him with a certified check made to his order for the funds he had won.
He never made it to the casino and his body was never recovered. Courtesy of the gang of Tony 'The Ant' Spillotro, The Mob's local enforcer, the Japanese businessman disappeared into the Las Vegas traffic - vaporized in thin air as well as a direct hit by the kid geniuses' atomic bombs could have done. And of course, the certified checks never made it to the airport, either.
During the second and third days of the Japanese businessman's run, the casinos made movie-quality films of the Japanese businessman's play. Suspecting that the Japanese businessman had accomplices, the casinos each made note of several of the hallmarks of the Parity Hedge System (but they never really grasped the basics of the strategy).
So what of the kid geniuses? To say that they were scared to death is an understatement. Yes, they had nuclear weapons, but they weren't of much practical use. One of the kid geniuses knew Benny Binion, the rough and tumble founder of the legendary Binion's casinos. Whether or not the Japanese businessman visited Binion's is not known. Certainly, Binion - and the casino owners who weren't visited by the Japanese businessman - were as at risk to being tapped by future Parity Hedge System players as the casinos that had suffered the (now disappeared) losses.
What seems to have happened is that Benny Binion agreed, on behalf of the casino owners and doubtless The Mob, to have accepted a complete analysis and breakdown of the Parity Hedge System (and a promise not to use it anymore) in exchange for protection. Truth is, only Binion was smart enough to understand the importance of getting the breakdown on the Parity Hedge System, and was capable of bringing the casino owners and The Mob together to cut the deal. Instead of further broadcasting the existence of the system by bringing in people to analyze it (the only people who would have the mathematical training and intellect to understand it could also run the system, of course), Binion apparently just hid the system in his home vault along with the last remaining film canisters of the Japanese businessman's fateful three days.
Craps Hedging Strategy For Beginners
The Parity Hedge System was apparently safe with Benny Binion through his death in the early 1990s, then it was inherited by Binion's son, Ted Binion. By this time, the Parity Hedge System and the Japanese businessman had been long forgotten, and the canisters relating to the Parity Hedge System had been moved out of Benny Binion's vault and into Ted Binion's closet. The Parity Hedge System itself was cached in the desert, along with some millions in silver that Ted Binion kept for emergencies.
At some point, Binion's new (former stripper) wife and her boyfriend were apparently rummaging through Binion's stuff and came across the film canisters. Watching the play, along with some narrative by a gaming analyst, they realized the important of the Parity Hedge System. Rumor has it that Ted Binion's stripper wife and her boyfriend then waylaid Binion and force-fed him heroin in an attempt to make him reveal the whereabouts of the analysis and summary done by the kid geniuses. But before the now-widow and her boyfriend could get to the spot in the desert, they were arrested for Ted Binion's murder.
So where is the Parity Hedge System now?
It is unknown where the analysis and the summary that the kid geniuses did for old man Binion have gone. What we do know is this: The group of mathematicians and physicists (probably numbering less than a half dozen) whom we have referred to as the 'kid geniuses' knew about the system that they created. We also know there were a few people who worked for the casino's during the Japanese businessman's remarkable run that saw the system employed. There may have been other films made other than those that Benny Binion ended up with. And we have no idea what the Japanese businessman did to memorialize his rather amply-demonstrated knowledge of the complexities of the system.
Pages Describing the Parity Hedge System
The following pages detail the Parity Hedge System. Enjoy!
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